For community sector service providers already struggling to meet demand, the news that Western Australia’s population hit three million in December 2024 and is tipped to be four million by 2043 is alarming.
This figure comes from a new report by the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC) called Every Person Counts: Planning for Western Australia’s future population.
It found the number of people living in the Perth metropolitan area, home to 81 per cent of WA’s population, has grown at twice the rate of regional areas.
Younger Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are also more likely to settle in Perth and major regional centres, with older populations tending to live in remote and regional communities.
The younger cohorts of WA’s Aboriginal population are growing faster than older age groups because of high fertility and higher mortality rates.
In a stark illustration of these mortality rates, this 3D model (pictured below) developed by the BCEC represents the population composition of the Pilbara.
The youngest cohorts are at the bottom of the model, the middle-aged in the middle and the top representing the oldest. The Pilbara, because of its higher proportion of Aboriginal people, has a very small number of people aged 70 and over, as demonstrated by the long, pointy tip.
The BCEC report – by Alex Buckland, Michael Dockery and Alan Duncan – argues that governments should consider regional population compositions, and not just size, when they are planning for future infrastructure and services.
“Service planning and delivery needs to be complemented by structured engagement with [Aboriginal] groups and organisations to ensure that planning reflects the lived realities, cultural contexts and mobility patterns of their communities, and that First Nations voices are heard in the design of culturally appropriate policy solutions,” it said.
The report also found that WA’s population growth is particularly sensitive to economic drivers, including housing supply and the iron ore price, and encouraged governments to be aware of these when planning for future needs.